Where Tennessee Basketball Projects in Expanded 76-Team Field After Massive Portal Haul

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Photo By Andrew Ferguson/Tennessee Athletics

Tennessee Basketball has been putting in the work this offseason with seven incoming transfer players and four high school additions. But the NCAA has also been quite busy over the last few weeks.

According to a report from ESPN’s Jeff Borzello on Thursday, the NCAA is officially expanding to a 76-team field for the men’s and women’s postseason tournament. This eight-team expansion was said to be heating up last week, but Thursday’s news means that it’s now official and will be implemented immediately for the 2026-2027 seasons.

The biggest change that fans will need to know about is the expanded opening round, which differs from the first round. The Opening Round, which has been known as the First Four, will now feature 24 teams vying for 12 spots in the main 64-team bracket. The First Four previously saw eight teams compete for four spots in the main tournament field.

The Opening Round will now consist of two 11-seed games, four 12-seed games, two 15-seed games, and four 16-seed games. The winners of those contests will earn the right to move into the 64-team field, where everything will be conducted as normal.

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Back to the Tennessee side of things, though. Fortunately for the Vols and the UT fanbase, Tennessee does not project to be anywhere near the new chaos of the 24-team opening round. But their projected seed might not be as high as some fans may be imagining after such an impressive portal haul.

ESPN’s resident bracketologist, Joe Lunardi, has Tennessee slated as the 5-seed in the Midwest Region. The Vols hypothetical first game will be against one of the opening round teams in either 12-seed Marquette or 12-seed Stanford from Omaha, Nebraska. From there, Tennessee would be slated to take on either 4-seed Kansas or 13-seed Wichita State.

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Other notable teams in Tennessee’s Midwest projection include 1-seed Michigan, 2-seed Arkansas, 3-seed Louisville, and 6-seed Texas Tech.

Tennessee is one of 13 SEC teams in Lunardi’s projected expanded field, which is the most teams from any conference in the nation. The SEC teams that project with a higher seed than Tennessee include 1-seed Florida, 2-seed Arkansas, 3-seed Texas, and 4-seed Alabama.

Tennessee’s roster will look completely different than it did last season, aside from returning second-year players DeWayne Brown and Troy Henderson. The Vols saw six players depart through the portal, with three of those individuals heading to in-conference programs.

That being said, though, Rick Barnes and his staff have brought in some serious transfer portal talent. The Vols’ class currently ranks No. 2 among portal teams in 247Sports’ rankings, and six of Tennessee’s additions are Top 100 portal players: Juke Harris (No. 8), Terrence Hill Jr. (No. 19), Jalen Haralson (No. 25), Dai Dai Ames (No. 53), Tyler Lundblade (No. 59), and Miles Rubin (No. 95).

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For comparison, Tennessee draw a 6-seed spot in the 2026 March Madness tournament earlier in the spring. The Vols made it to their third consecutive Elite Eight appearance, but fell to the eventual National Champion Michigan Wolverines in a 33-point blowout.

There’s no need to make a big fuss about May projectons for a tournament that’s still ten months away. While Lunardi’s projections suggest that he thinks Tennessee might not be all that much better than it was last season, Barnes and his staff believe in the roster that its putting together to make a run.

“This year, we knew that we wanted more offense,” Barnes said on The RTI Low-Down. “We didn’t want to really rely on two or three guys… We wanted to be more lethal, and we set out knowing it. We wanted versatility.”

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Check out Joe Lunardi’s full expanded NCAA Tournament projections here.

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