Tennessee Baseball will embark on its NCAA Tournament journey this weekend during the Chapel Hill Regional in Chapel Hill, NC. The Vols are the 2-seed in the region, playing alongside host team and 1-seed North Carolina, 3-seed East Carolina, and 4-seed VCU. Many analysts and fans have talked about the difficulty of the Chapel Hill Regional, including ESPN analysts during the selection show on Memorial Day.
But the numbers back it up, too. At least for Tennessee.
64Analytics put out new numbers on the toughest paths to the 2026 championship on Tuesday. This looks at the potential of facing an all-chalk road to the championship game. For Tennessee, the 2-seed in the regional, it would mean facing the 3-seed ECU in game one, 1-seed North Carolina in game two, 1-seed North Carolina in game 3, 1-seed North Carolina in game four, and 1-seed Texas A&M in the Super Regionals on the way to the College World Series. Then you have the actual games in Omaha, too.
According to 64Analytics, Tennessee has the toughest 12-game path in the NCAA Tournament field. The Vols barely surpass Boston College in the numbers, which both land above Ole Miss, Southern Cal, Cincinnati, and Wake Forest, all of which are 2-seeds in the field.
Side project: Who has the hardest path?
Meaning, in an all-chalk environment who faces the most difficult path to the championship.
For a 2-seed that would be G1: vs the 3-seed, G2: vs 1-seed, G3: vs 1-seed, G4: vs 1-seed in sister bracket, etc.
AdvertisementRank is average computer rank. pic.twitter.com/7HV7zS4TfQ
— 64Analytics (@64Analytics) May 26, 2026
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It’s not always going to be completely chalk like the hypothetical states, but this is the NCAA Tournament. It’s going to be a challenging road, no matter which path things take. For Tennessee, though, it could just wind up a bit tougher on paper than anyone else in the field.
During ESPN’s Selection Show on Monday, VFL and ESPN commentator Chris Burke stated his belief that North Carolina had the toughest 1-seed regional draw of the top eight teams in the field.
“Let me just say about Carolina – They’re playing VCU, who that’s a familiar opponent,” Burke said. “So there’s not going to be the awe factor. Then you’ve got East Carolina, the three seed, who they split with. It was 1-1-1 in a three-game set earlier this year. And then a Tennessee team that’s really trending. (Kyle Peterson) said it, you can throw Evan Blanco first, and if you get by East Carolina, if you’re Tennessee, you’ve got Tegan Kuhns, who’s a first-rounder all saved up there. So I do think, of the Top Eight, Carolina got the toughest draw.”
Analytics site PEARatings has set percentages for each team’s chance to win their regional. For the Vols, they have a 26.9% chance to advance. Among 2-seeds across the 64-team bracket, this is tied for the fifth-best mark of the 16 teams.
Naturally, North Carolina has the best odds to win the Chapel Hill Regional at 65.5%. ECU is at 6.9% and VCU is at 0.8%.
Regional Win Probabilities
This expects 11 hosts to advance, up from the nine last year. Lincoln and Hattiesburg with the highest chances of a 3/4 seed advancing. Kansas as the most balanced regional via TSR. pic.twitter.com/9o4GObmAvW
— PEARatings (@PEARatings) May 25, 2026
2-seed Tennessee and 3-seed East Carolina will square off in the first game of the Chapel Hill Regional at Noon ET on Friday afternoon. Stay tuned to Rocky Top Insider for live, on-site coverage of the weekend.
