With the 2026 MLB All-Star break here, the futures picture on the two biggest US prediction markets is set — and Polymarket and Kalshi largely agree on it. The Los Angeles Dodgers are the clear World Series favorite on both, the pennant races have separated, and the two boards line up closely from top to bottom. This odds update rounds up every market that matters heading into the break: the World Series, both league pennants, Monday’s Home Run Derby, and Tuesday’s All-Star Game.
Both platforms price these markets in cents, where the number doubles as the implied probability — a team at 30% trades around 30¢. Here’s the full board.
World Series Champion Odds: Polymarket and Kalshi
The Dodgers sit atop both boards, and by a wide margin — Los Angeles is nearly three times clear of the next team. Kalshi has traded about $32.7 million on the market and Polymarket about $35.0 million, making this the deepest MLB futures market on either platform:
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 31.8% | 29% |
| New York Yankees | 12% | 12% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 9.5% | 10% |
| Atlanta Braves | 8% | 7% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 7.4% | 6% |
| Seattle Mariners | 7% | 7% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 5.6% | 5% |
| Chicago Cubs | 4.1% | 4% |
| Texas Rangers | 3.3% | 3% |
Below the top nine, Kalshi rounds out its board with the Chicago White Sox (2%) while Polymarket lists the Toronto Blue Jays (3%). Odds current as of Sunday, July 12th, 2026.
American League Champion Odds: Polymarket and Kalshi
The AL pennant is the more open of the two leagues. The Yankees lead on both platforms, with Seattle and Tampa Bay close behind:
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 25% | 27% |
| Seattle Mariners | 18% | 21% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 16% | 15% |
| Texas Rangers | 9% | 9% |
| Chicago White Sox | 7% | 6% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 5% | 6% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 5% | 5% |
| Detroit Tigers | 6% | 4% |
| Houston Astros | 6% | 4% |
| Boston Red Sox | 5% | 4% |
The top four line up almost exactly; the small gaps come in the middle, where Kalshi prices Detroit and Houston a couple of points higher than Polymarket. Odds current as of Sunday, July 12th, 2026.
National League Champion Odds: Polymarket and Kalshi
The NL is the Dodgers’ to lose — Los Angeles is priced at nearly half on both boards, with Milwaukee a distant second:
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 48% | 46% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 18% | 19% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 12% | 9% |
| Atlanta Braves | 11% | 11% |
| Chicago Cubs | 7% | 9% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 3% | 3% |
| San Diego Padres | 3% | 2% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 2% | 2% |
| Miami Marlins | 2% | 2% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | <1% | 2% |
The only real disagreement is around the Phillies and Cubs: Kalshi has Philadelphia third at 12%, while Polymarket bumps the Cubs up to match the Phillies at 9%. Odds current as of Sunday, July 12th, 2026.
Home Run Derby Odds: Polymarket and Kalshi
Monday’s Home Run Derby is nearly a mirror image across the two platforms, with Kyle Schwarber the favorite at 22% on both:
| Player | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | 22% | 22% |
| Junior Caminero | 18% | 18% |
| Munetaka Murakami | 16% | 16% |
| Jac Caglianone | 13% | 12% |
| Jordan Walker | 11% | 12% |
| Bryce Harper | 10% | 10% |
| Ben Rice | 10% | 10% |
| Willson Contreras | 5% | 6% |
Kalshi has traded about $505,000 on the winner market. Odds current as of Sunday, July 12th, 2026, ahead of Monday’s 8pm ET Derby.
All-Star Game Odds: AL vs. NL on Polymarket and Kalshi
Tuesday’s All-Star Game has the National League as a slight favorite on both platforms:
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| National League | 54% | 56% |
| American League | 46% | 47% |
Kalshi also runs an extra-innings market — “Game goes to extra innings” sits at 9% — while Polymarket adds a spread (American League +1.5 at 69¢, National League -1.5 at 45¢) and a total (Over 7.5 runs at 59¢, Under at 55¢). Odds current as of Sunday, July 12th, 2026, ahead of Tuesday’s 8pm ET first pitch.
How to Trade These Markets: The ROCKY Code on Polymarket and Kalshi
Every market above is open to new US traders, and the code ROCKY carries a sign-up bonus on each platform:
- Kalshi: Sign up with the code ROCKY, place a first $10 trade, and get a $10 bonus. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange where prices are set by a live order book.
- Polymarket: Sign up with the code ROCKY, deposit $20, and get a $50 bonus for $70 total. Polymarket is a peer-to-peer prediction market where prices are set by trader supply and demand.
The same string works as a promo, referral, or invite code on either platform — enter ROCKY at registration and the bonus is credited once the qualifying step is complete.
Polymarket vs. Kalshi: How the Two Markets Compare
Across all five MLB markets, Polymarket and Kalshi price the field within a point or two of each other — a sign of how efficiently both boards are trading the season. The differences are structural, not directional: Kalshi runs as a CFTC-regulated exchange with an order book, while Polymarket is a peer-to-peer market. Volume is deep on the marquee markets on both — roughly $32.7 million (Kalshi) and $35.0 million (Polymarket) on the World Series alone — and thinner on the league pennants and the Derby. For traders who want to compare Polymarket odds against Kalshi odds before committing, running the ROCKY code on both is the simplest way in.
Key Takeaways on the MLB Odds Landscape:
Heading into the All-Star break, the Dodgers are the runaway favorite for both the National League and the World Series, the Yankees lead a tighter American League, and Kyle Schwarber tops the Home Run Derby board — and Polymarket and Kalshi agree on nearly all of it. The prices above are current as of Sunday, July 12th, 2026, and will keep moving through the break and into the second half.
Polymarket and Kalshi are prediction market platforms, not sportsbooks; Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange, and on both platforms users trade contracts on event outcomes using real funds. Must be 18+ and eligible under applicable US law; Kalshi is not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, and OH. Trading involves risk of loss. Bonuses are subject to each platform’s current terms and conditions and are valid for new accounts only.
