ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has been incredibly bullish on Tennessee the past couple years. Last year, perhaps a bit prematurely, it had Tennessee predicted to win 11 out of 12 games in the regular season.
The FPI is defined this way by ESPN:
“Is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. “
And those measurements still project well for the Vols this year.
The FPI has UT as the fifth-best team in the nation with a projected win total of 10.3. But even more impressive than that, the FPI projects the Vols to win every game they play.
That’s right, while the “win out” projection is only 4.7%, when each game is broken down, the FPI gives UT the edge in each one.
There are some eye-opening percentages in there such as an 80.2% chance to beat Florida, a 58.9% chance to top Alabama and an 88.7% or greater chance to win every other game in the SEC East outside of Georgia.
Of course, this projection is ultimately a bunch of numbers that don’t reflect what will happen on the field.
It gave UT three more wins than the Vols actually got last year, so there are no guarantees. But for any UT fans out there hoping this could be the year for the Vols, there’s at least some statistical backing that it could happen.