Since the end of the 2021 college football season, Treylon Burks has been talked about as one of the top wide receivers for the 2022 NFL Draft. His hype train continued after the Tennessee Titans selected him with the 18th overall pick, which they acquired after trading A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Since then, however, the hype train has come to a screeching halt. Reports popped up early during offseason activities that Burks was having conditioning issues and missing practices. In the Titans’ first preseason game, the first-round rookie played into the fourth quarter which is generally viewed as a not-so-great indicator.
How are Tennessee sportsbooks viewing Treylon Burks? Are the negative reports being overblown? Or is there cause for concern? Let’s take a look at Treylon Burks’ Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.
Treylon Burks Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
|Breece Hall, NYJ||+850||+900||+1200|
|Kenny Pickett, PIT||+1000||+800||+900|
|Chris Olave, NO||+1000||+1200||+1000|
|Skyy Moore, KC||+1000||+1200||+1200|
|George Pickens, PIT||+1000||+1200||+1000|
|Jalen Tolbert, DAL||+1200||NA||+1600|
|Romeo Doubs, GB||+1400||+1400||+1600|
|Garrett Wilson, NYJ||+1400||+1200||NA|
|Drake London, ATL||+1400||+1000||+1200|
|Treylon Burks, TEN||+1400||+1000||+1400|
When odds for OROY opened, Burks was one of the favorites to win the award. His odds were listed at +725, which was tied for the second-shortest along with Falcons’ wide receiver Drake London.
Burks’ negative camp reports, combined with positive blurbs on players like former Georgia Bulldog George Pickens and small school receiver Skyy Moore, have led to odds board shifting and ultimately Burks sliding.
The Case For Treylon Burks
There’s a reason why Burks was one of the most talked about and exciting prospects entering the 2022 NFL Draft. There simply aren’t many receivers built like the former Arkansas Razorback who move the way he does. At the combine, he posted an 86th-percentile speed score (a measure of size and speed). In his junior year at Arkansas, his 1,104 receiving yards and 11 scores accounted for 41% and 52% of the team’s total, respectively.
The Titans’ depth chart is far from insurmountable for a rookie who seems to be currently struggling. The team’s top wideout appears to be 30-year-old Robert Woods who suffered an ACL tear in November. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Racey McMath have combined for 43 receptions and 517 yards. Fellow rookie Kyle Philips has been receiving the buzz most hoped Burks would get, but he’s smaller, older, and doesn’t have the collegiate production profile like Burks.
The Case Against Treylon Burks
Even if Burks was in line to be the unquestioned top receiver for the Titans, he would be at a disadvantage due to the team’s offensive philosophy. Tennessee has been a bottom-three team in terms of pass-to-run ratio for three straight seasons. Even when Derrick Henry was out last year, Ryan Tannehill attempted fewer than 30 passes per game.
A.J. Brown thrived in Tennesse because of his ability to be extremely efficient with the targets he received. In the two years Brown had over 1,000 receiving yards, he did so with the fewest targets compared to all other receivers who reached the same milestone.
While I don’t think there’s reason to be concerned because of the recent camp reports for Burks, he’s not the offensive rookie I want to back. If you want to take a shot on a player with longer odds, look for someone who has an easier path to opportunity.