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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am Odds: Look for Longshots and an Albatross

The PGA Tour continues its West Coast swing with a trip to California for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am. It’s one of the PGA Tour’s sillier events, as pros get paired with celebrities for a week of terrible golf shots. If you love watching Samuel L. Jackson slice a drive into the Pacific Ocean, you’re in for a treat this week!   

The tournament structure is different than most weeks, as golfers play a trio of courses over the first three rounds. Each golfer will play one round at Pebble Beach Links, Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula. The field will be cut in half after 54 holes, and the remaining golfers will play their final round at Pebble Beach on Sunday.

Past champions at this event have typically been fairways and greens type of players. Pebble Beach in particular has notoriously small greens, which means accuracy is weighted heavier than usual. Each of the three courses measures under 7,000 yards, so shorter hitters that favor accuracy over distance own an advantage this week. 

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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Odds

One of the unfortunate realities of the new PGA Tour schedule of elevated events means less attendance at other tour stops. Starting next week, the Tour has back-to-back elevated events — the Waste Management Phoenix Open and the Genesis Invitational. It’s no big surprise to see most of the stars skip this one. Playing a six-hour round of golf with Macklemore isn’t exactly great prep for a $20 million dollar tournament next week.

There’s a three-way tie at the top of the odds board this week. Jordan Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Viktor Hovland are each priced in the +1000 range. Last year’s winner, Tom Hoge, is next at +1800. Seamus Power is in this same range at +2200. Power was the 36-hole leader here last year. He opened with a five-shot lead through two rounds but stumbled on the weekend. He finished in a tie for ninth.

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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Card, Value Picks

With such a weak field, it’s tempting to target the brand names near the top of the board. 

Spieth has an incredible track record at the event. He won here in 2017, and added another six top 10s in ten starts, including back-to-back podium finishes in 2021 and 2022. Hovland is also tough to ignore. The Norwegian won the U.S. Amateur at Pebble Beach in 2018 and was the low amateur at the U.S. Open played here in 2019. 

But +1000 for an outright? No thank you. Target these guys instead in head-to-head matchups and daily fantasy lineups. As for outrights, a more advisable approach is to throw a few (small!) darts on some longer shots. No need to spend a ton of money this week with so many golf betting opportunities ahead in 2023. 

Here are some value bets you can find at the best online sportsbooks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. If you want to take a swing with one of those sports betting apps for the first time, make sure to take advantage of the promos and bonuses available at each one.

Russell Knox, 60-to-1

Knox is a solid course fit for the “fairways and greens” style of golf needed to succeed at Pebble Beach. One of the tour’s shorter hitters, Knox ranked inside the PGA top 20 in both fairways hit (FIR) and greens in regulation (GIR) last year. Knox was in contention at Pebble Beach two years ago before getting assessed a one stroke penatly on Sunday. He’s worth a look at +6000 considering a much weaker strength of field than most weeks.

Matthew NeSmith, 100-to-1

NeSmith is also a worthy dart throw in the triple digit stratosphere. He’s posted three top 10s this season (and, ahem, four missed cuts) so it’s a high variance play. NeSmith finished second in Las Vegas at the Shriner’s Children Hospital Open in a pretty stacked field. NeSmith had above average numbers in both FIR and GIR on tour last year, ranking inside the top 50 in both. In such a wide-open field this week, it’s worth a sprinkle.

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Davis Riley +7500

It wasn’t too long ago that Riley was catching buzz as golf’s next big star. He was in contention at the 2022 Valspar Championship, only to struggle down the stretch and finish solo second to Sam Burns. Riley then had a stretch last summer of six straight top 20s, including three top 10s and an impressive 13th place finish at the PGA Championship. His game hasn’t looked quite as sharp since then, but I’ve been waiting for an opportunity to back him again. +7500 in a weaker field feels good to me. 

(Other notable longshots worth a small outright play: Webb Simpson +10,000, Erik Van Rooyen +8500, Kevin Streelman +10,000, Harry Higgs +17,500, Garrick Higgo +12,000)

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Best Prop Bet: Will There be an Albatross? YES +1000

My favorite bet of the week is the “Will There Be An Albatross?” prop bet. We hit this one two weeks ago during the American Express Championship when Xander Schauffele jarred his second shot on the Par 5 5th hole on the Pete Dye Stadium Course. I love this prop at Pebble Beach for the same reason I loved it two weeks ago. 

Extra Par 5s.

Skip the next section if you hate math. Just trust me and bet YES on the Albatross prop then go watch this instead. 

A typical PGA Tour stop is played on a single course that features four Par 5s. And with a 36-hole cut, each golfer is guaranteed two rounds of golf. That means each golfer will play eight Par 5s on Thursday and Friday, and another eight Par 5s on Saturday and Sunday. We also know, on average, 75 golfers make the cut and another 75 miss the cut each week.  

We’re looking at 1,800 total Par 5s played during a typical PGA Tour Event:

  • 75 players make the cut x 16 Par 5s = 1,200 holes played
  • 75 players miss the cut x 8 Par 5s = 600 holes players
  • Total 1,800 Albatross Opportunities 

That number is a best-case scenario. We’re assuming the course has four Par 5s that are reachable in two. The true number drops dramatically if the course only has three Par 5s, or events with a smaller number of entrants, and other variables. This week at Pebble Beach the number of Albatross opportunities is much higher than usual. 

With each player guaranteed to play three rounds, it increases the total number of albatross opportunities to 2,100. With the exception of the 14th hole at Pebble Beach and the 12th at Monterey, which can be beastly, the rest of these Par 5s are reachable in two shots for every golfer in the field. Some of them won’t play further than 500 yards, which means certain players could be using a short iron for their second shots.

Sure, the albatross is the rarest feat in golf. But it’s happened before at Pebble Beach. With an extra round of golf, and a slew of reachable Par 5s, it’s not out of the realm of reality to see another Albatross this week in California. 

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Article contributed by Jim Robinson

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