The Miami Heat adjusted in Game 2 of the NBA Finals and stole a win on the road in Denver. They were hoping to have Tyler Herro return for Game 3, but he has officially been ruled out. The Nuggets look to retake home-court advantage with a win in Miami on Wednesday, June 7, at 7:30 p.m. CT on ABC. With the pressure to adjust now on Denver, we’ve identified some of the best NBA Finals prop bets for tonight’s contest on the top online sportsbooks.
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Best NBA Finals Prop Bets for Game 3
The Heat’s biggest adjustment in Game 2 was clear — don’t allow the Nuggets other than Nikola Jokic to beat them. Although it came down to the wire, it worked out. The Heat are sure to go back to that strategy until Denver’s supporting cast proves it can defeat it. That sets up a few pretty consistent wagers to consider.
Gabe Vincent OVER 14.5 Points (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
This is almost a guarantee for Gabe Vincent given how he is shooting from deep. He has scored 15-plus points in five of his last six games, and he connected on at least two 3-pointers in five of the six games. The one game he didn’t score at least 15 points over the last six was Game 7 of the previous round, and that is because he played 26 minutes thanks to Miami securing the victory in a blowout fashion.
In the current series, he is shooting 56% from three. In the last round, he shot 51% from three. The Heat are searching for him, and he is rewarding them. It’s all hands on deck for Miami when it comes to scoring, and Vincent is as integral as it gets to their success. Additionally, his shot attempts and minutes are up in this round, which further elevates his odds of covering this wager.
Bam Adebayo Over 19.5 Points (+100 on DraftKings)
Jokic has improved his defensive capabilities this year, but there are still obvious weaknesses in his game. Against a coach like Miami’s Erik Spoelstra, they are bound to get exposed. Under Spoelstra’s direction, Miami is keeping the Nuggets’ big man in pick-and-roll action, and it is leading to consistent looks at or around the basket for Adebayo, and he is cashing in. After two games, Adebayo is posting his highest field goal percentage of any series in the playoffs.
He also scored his postseason high this year in Game 1 with 26 points. Adebayo followed up that performance with a 21-point outing on 14 shots. He is feasting offensively, and that isn’t likely to change. Thanks to the countless easy looks at the basket the Heat’s offense is creating for him, his odds of covering this wager remain high. In fact, other sportsbooks have his odds at -105 on this betting line, so the value is significant on DraftKings.
Nikola Jokic Under 9.5 Assists (+116 on Caesars Sportsbook)
Jokic started the series playing like the second coming of Magic Johnson. Since Spoelstra has adjusted, however, he has been forced into becoming more of a scorer. The adjustment took away most of the wide-open, high-quality looks for his supporting cast, and it had an obvious impact on their output. It also had a significant impact on Jokic’s ability to cover this wager.
After a 14-assist performance in Game 1, he finished Game 2 with four assists. Denver adjusted to the Heat’s game plan near the end of the game on Sunday, but its adjustments led to more assists for Jamal Murray, who led all players with 10 assists in Game 2. Until Jokic proves he can counter Spoelstra’s adjustment on the court, taking him under 10 assists has good odds of paying off.
Nikola Jokic OVER 29.5 points (+100 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Heat don’t have the size to stop Jokic. Doubling down to try and stop him led to open shots for all his teammates, and that resulted in a blowout victory in Game 1. Now that they have stopped that additional defensive support, he can dominate on the low block. In Game 1, he scored 27 points on 12 shots.
In Game 2, he was 16 for 28, with 41 points. Thanks to Miami’s strategy and his glaring size advantage over Adebayo and Kevin Love, he should flirt with 30 points every game. You should also consider taking him to score 35-plus points at +310 on FanDuel.
Article contributed by David Fletcher.