The Opponent: The University of Alabama needs no introduction to the Tennessee fan base. The Tide have been playing football for 131 years, and have claimed 127 national titles in the process. Saturday will be the 106th meeting between Alabama and Tennessee, with the Tide holding the all-time advantage 58-39-7. That was 43-38-7 before Nick Saban’s arrival in Tuscaloosa. However, Saban has absolutely dominated the Third Saturday in October since ambushing Phillip Fulmer with an opening onside kick in 2007. Saturday will be the first time Nick Saban looks for revenge against Tennessee in a rivalry that has been played every year since 1944. With future SEC scheduling still a major question, Saturday should be a tradition that both fan bases should enjoy while they still can.
Are they any Good?: Yes, of course, Alabama is good. That has been an easy question to answer for the past 15 seasons, where Nick Saban has gone 112-13 in the SEC since 2008. The question is how good is this Alabama team compared to their own national title standards? The jury is still out there. Alabama is certainly susceptible in certain areas, like pass protection. It is also hard to know what to make of Jalen Milroe compared to the star-studded quarterbacks who preceded him in Tuscaloosa. This is an Alabama roster loaded with four and five-star players though, and they’re coached by arguably the greatest college football coach of all time. Alabama is good, it really doesn’t matter how good.
What will this tell us about Tennessee?: The next two weeks are going to tell us if Tennessee has a problem playing on the road. We have seen more stinkers than quality performances in true road games over the past year. The Vols played pretty poor overall in Gainesville, and absolutely dreadful in the second quarter. Tennessee has no chance to win with a similar effort on Saturday. This Tennessee team leads the SEC in both penalties per game and penalty yardage per game. Those mistakes seem to get amplified on the road. Saturday is going to tell us if the Vols can travel.
What does Vegas say?: This line opened up at Tennessee +8.5. It bounced up to +9.5 for a minute but seems to have settled back at +8.5 for now. Taking home-field advantage into account, it seems to suggest that Las Vegas thinks Alabama is a little less than a touchdown better than Tennessee on a neutral field. Tennessee’s last three lines in Tuscaloosa were +25.5, +34.5, and +36.5. The Tide covered two of those three games. Given how offensively limited Tennessee has looked at times this season, this year’s line certainly suggests Las Vegas is not entirely sold on Alabama either. The Tide are 4-3 ATS this season, 2-2 when playing at home. The Over/Under total is set at 48.5, which is less than the losing team scored in last year’s meeting. This isn’t Hendon Hooker versus Bryce Young.
More from RTI: Peyton Manning Pokes Fun At Alabama Leading Into Saturday’s Game
Matchup to watch on Offense: Cashing in on Red Zone trips. Tennessee is scoring on 86% of its Red Zone trips, scoring touchdowns 58% of the time. That second number was at 79% last season. This season’s number gets even worse when you remember the Vols were 7 for 7 scoring touchdowns against Virginia in the opener. The 58% includes that Virginia game, the Vols are 10 of 22 (46%) since the opener. Tennessee’s Red Zone struggles are further compounded when you consider the lack of explosive plays by this offense. Last year’s Tennessee offense was scoring from outside of the Red Zone. That is not the case this season. Tennessee’s offense has only 23 plays of 20+ yards this season (12 rushing, 11 passing), which ranks 13th in the SEC. When you are not scoring from outside of the Red Zone, it really puts a premium on finishing drives once you get there. A lot of that starts with Joe Milton. Tennessee’s sixth-year quarterback threw a really bad interception in the end zone against Texas A&M. His second interception against South Carolina was right on the edge of the Red Zone. Milton has to protect the ball better on Saturday. Playing in the Red Zone compresses the field, which typically makes throwing windows even tighter. I would expect Alabama to emphasize coverage on the outside against Tennessee, and really force Milton to look to the middle of the field. That is where he seems least comfortable throwing the ball. Tennessee will get the ball into Alabama territory on Saturday. They have to find the end zone more often than not in order to pull off the upset though.
Matchup to watch on Defense: Avoiding the big play. Alabama has 10 completions of over 40 yards this season. When given time, Jalen Milroe has been throwing a nice deep ball. After surviving a harrowing attack from a UT sorority girl last season, Jermaine Burton has shown a really nice connection with Milroe down the field. The Georgia transfer was fantastic against Texas A&M, with 9 catches for 197 yards. Burton has had a reception of 40+ yards in five of the six games he has played in this season. Tennessee will likely have Kamal Hadden matched up on Burton. Hadden has been playing fantastic football the past few weeks, consistently grading out as one of Tennessee’s best defenders this season. Jermaine Burton will have catches on Saturday, it is the home run ball that Tennessee needs to avoid. The reality is Jalen Milroe has struggled to consistently make the short and intermediate throws. This is not an Alabama offense that is slowly driving opponents backward, they’ve been fueled by the big play instead. While there have been a few notable exceptions, this Tennessee defense has been really good at avoiding big plays and big mistakes. Statistically, no defense in the SEC is giving up less long plays from scrimmage than the Vols. It has been a quiet season so far for safeties Jaylen McCullough and Wesley Walker. That is not necessarily a bad thing. Whether it is help over the top on a long passing play, or being forced to tackle Jalen Milroe in open space, I think both safeties will be put in positions to make plays on Saturday. That very likely is just preventing the big play. Those moments may very well determine the outcome of this game. Tennessee has a good chance at the upset if they can limit Alabama’s home run plays.
Fun Fact: Tennessee’s 52 points last season were the most scored on a Nick Saban defense since Tom Osborne and Nebraska hung 55 on Michigan State in 1996. Scott Frost was the quarterback in that game for Nebraska. Josh Heupel was just starting his senior season at Central High School in Aberdeen, South Dakota. It was also a fantastic year for Hollywood. The following movies all premiered in 1996; Independence Day, Mission Impossible, Twister, The Rock, Toy Story, Jerry Maguire, The Birdcage, A Time to Kill, Space Jam, Mr. Holland’s Opus, The Cable Guy, Tin Cup, Happy Gilmore, Kingpin, Scream, Fear, Se7en, Fargo, Bio-Dome, and Beavis & Butthead Do America. Holy hell, what a year to go to the movies!
So What Happens?: There is reason to like the matchup of Tennessee’s defense against this Alabama offense. Assuming the Tennessee defense can travel, I already touched on how they’ve been successful at preventing long plays. Those have been a staple of this Alabama offense under Jalen Milroe. More importantly, James Pearce and Tyler Baron are playing as well as any pass rush duo in college football this season. Where Tennessee’s pass rush has been elite through six games, Alabama has been porous in pass blocking. The Tide are 130th in the nation with 31 sacks surrendered through seven games. To put that into perspective, Bryce Young was only sacked 22 times through 13 games last season. Five-star true freshman Kadyn Proctor is reminding folks why it is so hard to play left tackle in the SEC as a freshman. Proctor has struggled mightily in Alabama’s last several games. How do Nick Saban and Tommy Rees adjust to that when facing Tennessee’s pass rush? It is hard to see a path to victory for Tennessee that does not involve its pass rush making some big plays. Saban is very good in “revenge” games and certainly will be using last year’s score to motivate his defense. Saban has only lost six games at home since his first season at Alabama. Those six visiting quarterbacks were Cam Newton, Zach Mettenberg, Johnny Manziel, Chad Kelly, Joe Burrow, and Quinn Ewers. That is where I struggle to see Tennessee win on Saturday. It is not that Joe Milton is not capable of playing at that level, but he has not played anywhere near that level this season. I expect Tennessee’s vaunted run game to have some success on Saturday, but at what point does Saban put eight defenders in the box to force the Vols to throw? This is not a bulletproof Alabama team. If this game were inside Neyland Stadium again I would be picking Tennessee. Unfortunately, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Tennessee play well on the road, and it’s been a while since we’ve seen Joe Milton play well period. It is hard to pick the Vols when considering those two facts. Alabama 31, Tennessee 17
