NFL Week 13 offers a feast with 16 games over a five-day span, and I have three early-week NFL underdog picks against the point spread, including a quick analysis of each matchup.
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I went 1-2 with my Week 12 underdog selections, dropping my ATS season record to 15-20-1 with 10 outright winners.
NFL underdog picks for Week 13: Las Vegas Raiders (+13.5 FanDuel) at Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are at it again, pacing the AFC and tied for the league’s best record at 10-1.
But against the spread, K.C. is below .500 at 5-6, including a 2-5 mark when laying at least 3.5 points. That includes a 27-20 Week 8 road win as a 9-point favorite in Las Vegas — one of eight one-score victories for Mahomes and Co., on the season.
It’s a continuation of Kansas City’s recent track record. The Chiefs rank second in the league with a home record of 36-10 (.783, including playoffs) since the start of the 2020 season but are way down at 24th with a home ATS mark of 20-25-1 (.444) during that span.
The Raiders, who could be turning back to second-year QB Aidan O’Connell following Gardner Minshew’s season-ending collarbone fracture Sunday, own a 2-9 record and the league’s longest current losing streak at seven straight.
But we’ll play the percentages on Friday and go with a Chiefs win … and a Raiders cover.
NFL underdog picks for Week 13: Carolina Panthers (+6.5 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Here’s another trend that could’ve been mentioned above: In division games this season, NFL underdogs of 6-plus points are 13-5-1 ATS, with eight outright victories.
And despite its 3-8 overall record, Carolina is an attractive divisional dog Sunday as it hosts 5-6 Tampa Bay.
QB Bryce Young and Panthers have shown some marked improvement of late, winning two of their last three and taking the Chiefs down to the final play in a 30-27 home loss Sunday as a 10.5-point underdog.
Overall, Carolina is 4-3 ATS this season when catching six or more points.
Baker Mayfield and the Bucs, meanwhile, are coming off a 30-7 road rout of the lowly Giants, but that stands as their only win in their last five outings.
NFL underdog picks for Week 13: Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5 FanDuel) vs. Houston Texans
Go ahead and make it 3-for-3 on divisional underdog selections this week.
The Texans (7-4) have a two-game lead as they seek their second straight AFC South title.
But second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud (25th in QBR) and Houston (3-5-1 ATS as a favorite) have largely underwhelmed this season.
The Jags (2-9), meanwhile, have had a much worse campaign.
But they’re playing at home, coming off a bye and will get starting QB Trevor Lawrence back following a four-week shoulder injury absence.
And despite a league-worst-tying SU record, Jacksonville is a much-more respectable 6-5 ATS, including a 5-2 mark as an underdog.
In Week 4, the Jaguars gave the host Texans all they could handle in a 24-20 loss, covering as a 5-point underdog.
Expect a similar result Sunday in Duval County.
