From Patrick Mahomes to Saquon Barkley to Jalen Hurts, Super Bowl 59 is stacked with big-name prop betting options.
But veteran Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce — a.k.a. Taylor Swift’s Big Game Plus One — takes a backseat to no one. Following we take a look at the odds and handicap the probabilities for some of Kelce’s most-popular Super Bowl 59 props.
New customers looking to bet on Sunday’s Big Game can utilize our top online sportsbook offers, which are worth nearly a combined $4,000 in welcome bonuses (see below).
All the odds and prop numbers quoted below were as of Wednesday at the major sports betting apps and are subject to change.
Super Bowl 59 Travis Kelce props: Receptions Over/Under 6.5
Kelce finished with 97 catches on 133 targets in 16 regular season games, tying the fourth-highest season reception total of his 12-year career. In two playoff contests, he’s added nine grabs on 12 targets.
In 18 total games in 2024-25, including the postseason, Kelce has recorded seven or more receptions in eight of them, including a 7-catch, 117-yard outing in the divisional round vs. the Houston Texans.
In 24 career playoff games, including the aforementioned contest above, Kelce has recorded seven-plus grabs in 14 of those contests, averaging 7.25 catches on 8.92 targets per outing.
Kelce has faced the Eagles twice over the last two seasons, catching all six of his targets for 81 yards and a touchdown two years ago in Kansas City’s 38-35 Super Bowl 57 win and reeling in 7-of-9 targets for 44 yards and a TD in Philly’s 21-17 Monday night road victory in 2023.
During the 17-game regular season, the Eagles surrendered only 68 receptions (4.0 per contest) on 103 targets to opposing tight ends.
However, Philly lost linebacker Nakobe Dean to a season-ending injury in a wild card win over Green Bay, and gave up 28 receptions for 227 yards and two TDs on 35 targets to opposing tight ends in their three NFC playoff wins.
Best bet: Kelce remains Mahomes’ top target — but no longer his most consistently productive one at age 35. Expect Kelce to have the Eagles’ full attention after the two strong head-to-head showings detailed above, but we’ll still recommend a small-unit OVER wager here with the nice plus-odds price (+128 at FanDuel Sportsbook).
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Super Bowl 59 Travis Kelce props: Receiving yards O/U 60.5
This is where Kelce’s advancing age is more evident as his 823 yards in 2024 and averages of 8.5 yards per reception and 6.2 yards per target all were career lows.
He has had 62 or more receiving yards in eight of his 18 games this season and has had at least 66 yards in 19 of his 24 career playoff games.
Philly limited opposing tight ends to the fewest yards (591, 34.8 per game) during the regular season but has allowed an average of 75.7 per outing in the playoffs.
Best bet: Even if Kelce goes over his receptions prop total and finishes with seven, that still only puts him at 60 yards, going by his season per-catch average. Play the UNDER at DraftKings Sportsbook (-115), which has it a couple yards higher at 62.5.
Also when playing unders on Super Bowl props — especially with popular players such as Kelce — more value can usually be gleaned by waiting to catch inflated totals closer to kickoff and fading the over-loving public.
Super Bowl 59 Travis Kelce props: Longest reception O/U 19.5 yards
As you might’ve surmised from Kelce’s career-low averages above, his big plays have been fewer and farther between this season with only 11 of his 106 total receptions, including the postseason, gaining 20-plus yards.
Best bet: Provided the Eagles’ Super Bowl tight end defense is closer to their regular season performance than their playoff showing, play the percentages here and go with the UNDER as well here. DraftKings has Kelce’s longest-reception prop set a tick higher at 20.5 yards with the under still priced at -110.
Super Bowl 59 Travis Kelce props: Anytime TD
Kelce posted another career season low with three touchdown catches during the regular season.
He’s added one more during the playoffs, giving him a highly-impressive 20 in 24 career postseason games.
Meanwhile, the Eagles’ defense permitted only five tight end TDs during the regular season before surrendering two more this postseason.
Best bet: With Kelce’s anytime TD odds Sunday at an enticing +140 at DraftKings, it’s certainly worth a swing. And with Kelce’s first TD game odds listed at +1000 at BetMGM Sportsbook, get something down here as well.
DraftKings Swiftie Special: Chiefs to win & Kelce to score 2+ TDs (Today Was a Fairytale)
DK unveiled several pages of themed “Swiftie Special” Big Game props on Wednesday, and Taylor’s beau is featured in his fair share.
The Chiefs are consensus 1.5-point favorites Sunday as they seek a historic three-peat and fourth Lombardi Trophy in the last six seasons.
Kelce, though, hasn’t logged a multi-touchdown game since last season’s divisional playoffs. However, it was his fourth multi-TD outing in the postseason.
Best bet: Why not take a small lottery ticket shot here with a +1400 payout? Another long-odds Kelce prop worth a nominal stake is his Super Bowl MVP odds at BetMGM, priced at +1500. Kelce would be the first tight end to earn Big Game MVP honors, but it would certainly be fitting for this no-doubt Hall of Famer.
