The 2025-26 women’s basketball regular season has come to a close. Lady Vols basketball finished with a 16-12 (8-8 SEC) mark, but has lost all momentum after a hot start to the SEC slate. Tennessee has lost six-straight contests and nine of its last 11.
Now, the SEC Tournament will be the final data point for the Lady Vols to put on the resume for the NCAA Tournament. Despite the ugly stretch, Tennessee is currently firmly in the mix for an at-large bid, according to projections.
ESPN’s bracketology has the Lady Vols as a 7-seed at this junction of the season. That projection has Tennessee opening the bracket against 10-seed Virginia. The winner of that game gets the winner between 2-seed Michigan and 15-seed LMU. Each of the games in the opening two rounds would be played in Ann Arbor on the Wolverines’ home floor.
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If Kim Caldwell can steer the Lady Vols to back-to-back Sweet 16s, Tennessee would likely face either 3-seed TCU or 6-seed Alabama in this projection. Other top teams on the path to a potential Final Four are 1-seed South Carolina, 4-seed Ohio State and 5-seed North Carolina.
The Lady Vols are one of 11 teams in the SEC projected to make the tournament. Texas A&M is also sitting just outside the predicted field, but a strong end to the season could see them marking the 12th team from the conference in the event. Only the Big Ten’s 12 predicted teams are more than the SEC’s.
The SEC Tournament will begin this Wednesday. However, Tennessee has a first-round bye and will open its run on Thursday night against the winner between 11-seed Alabama and 14-seed Missouri.
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