Tennessee basketball is back in the NCAA Tournament for an eighth straight time after posting a 22-11 (11-7 SEC) record and landing as a six-seed in the Midwest Region. It’s the lowest seed the Vols have been in the NCAA Tournament since Rick Barnes arrived as head coach.
It’s been an up-and-down year for Tennessee and the first time they’ve entered the NCAA Tournament with double-digit losses since 2023. That year, the Vols made the Sweet 16 despite scuffling entering the tournament.
What does Tennessee need to do to return to the Sweet 16? What statistics best indicate success for Tennessee basketball this season? Taking a look here.
*SEC records include SEC Tournament games
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Nate Ament Scores 20-Plus Points
Yes: 9-2 (7-1 SEC)
No: 12-8 (4-6 SEC)
Context: This one is as simple as it gets. Tennessee has largely gone as Ament has this season. When he’s efficient and scores at a high clip. The Vols have been tough to beat. Tennessee’s only losses with Ament scoring 20 points were against Kentucky and Kansas.
Tennessee Shoots 70% Or Better From The Free Throw Line
Yes: 14-1 (8-0 SEC)
No: 8-10 (4-8 SEC)
Context: This one is crazy because 70% is still not a good free throw percentage. But that’s the line for Tennessee. When they shoot over 70% then they almost always win with its loss against Kansas as the exception. If not, the Vols struggle to beat quality competition.
Tennessee Scores 77 Points
Yes: 17-2 (8-2 SEC)
No: 5-9 (4-6 SEC)
Context: 77 points is how much Tennessee needs to score to feel good about winning. A worrisome trend, Tennessee has scored 77 points just three times since the start of February. The losses came against Vanderbilt and Kentucky in Knoxville.
Bishop Boswell Totals 14 Or More Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals
Yes: 13-5 (8-3 SEC)
No: 6-6 (4-5 SEC)
Context: Bishop Boswell has made his mark on this Tennessee team with his ability contribute in different way, flying all around the court grabbing rebounds and making plays. The Vols need more of that from Boswell, who is struggling as of late, moving forward.
Tennessee Out-Scores Its Opponent In The Paint
Yes: 20-6
No: 2-5
Context: Tennessee wins the paint battle nearly every game so this is not all that telling. But when they don’t win in the paint, things usually go poorly. Ironically, the two wins without winning the points in the paint battle were at Alabama and Georgia— two of the Vols’ best wins this season.
Jaylen Carey Plays Over 15 Minutes
Yes: 13-10 (6-7 SEC)
No: 9-1 (6-1 SEC)
Context: This one is perhaps not overly fair to Carey. Three of the nine wins were in buy games. Three of the SEC wins came against South Carolina, LSU and Mississippi State. He also played exactly 15 minutes in a win at Alabama while missing the last eight minutes due to inury. I understand why Tennessee plays Carey, but believe they give him too many minutes. This stat would back it up.
More to follow: SEC Tournament
