The St. Louis Cardinals return home to Busch Stadium on Thursday night looking to keep pace in the NL Central when they host the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Cardinals hand the ball to Michael McGreevy and his tidy 3.35 ERA, while the Diamondbacks counter with Zac Gallen, a former Cy Young contender slogging through a rough season with a 6.10 ERA.
On paper that’s a clear mismatch on the mound, yet the prediction models and betting markets still have this one close to a coin flip. First pitch is set for 7:45 PM ET.
Here’s a full breakdown of the matchup, the projections and where the prediction markets stand ahead of the series opener.
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks: matchup overview
The two clubs enter the night within striking distance of one another in the standings. St. Louis sits second in the National League Central but well back of the runaway Milwaukee Brewers, while Arizona is third in a tight NL West, chasing the Los Angeles Dodgers. Both teams have hovered around .500 over their last 10 games. Here’s how they stack up:
| Team | Record | Pct. | Division (GB) | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | 42-36 | .538 | 2nd, NL Central (7.0) | 4-6 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 41-39 | .513 | 3rd, NL West (10.5) | 6-4 |
The pitching matchup tilts in St. Louis’ favor on paper. The Cardinals send out Michael McGreevy (3-6, 3.35 ERA), while Arizona counters with Zac Gallen (3-6, 6.10 ERA), who has struggled to a much higher run rate this season.
Dimers’ win probabilities and projections
The prediction site Dimers gives the Cardinals a slight edge at home, projecting a 53% chance to win versus 47% for the Diamondbacks. The current betting market lines up with that read:
| Market | Line |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cardinals -120 / Diamondbacks +122 |
| Run line | Cardinals -1.5 |
| Total (Over/Under) | 8.5 |
| Dimers win probability | Cardinals 53% / Diamondbacks 47% |
Dimers’ player projections lean into the Cardinals’ edge on the mound. The starting pitching projections break down like this:
| Pitcher | Team | Proj. earned runs | Proj. outs | Proj. strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael McGreevy | STL | 2.53 | 15.24 | 3.23 |
| Zac Gallen | ARI | 2.68 | 16.24 | 4.48 |
On the hitting side, Alec Burleson leads the St. Louis projections with the team’s best odds to record at least one hit and to go deep. Here are the Cardinals’ top projected bats:
| Hitter | 1+ Hit | 2+ Hits | To get RBI | To hit HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson | 60.8% | 27.8% | 28.7% | 10.9% |
| Ivan Herrera | 59.2% | 25.2% | 28.4% | 9.8% |
| Masyn Winn | 58.8% | 24.9% | 24.7% | 7.3% |
| Nathan Church | 58.6% | 24.3% | 24.7% | 5.0% |
| Blaze Jordan | 57.9% | 23.4% | 25.6% | 7.2% |
| JJ Wetherholt | 57.6% | 23.1% | 24.1% | 7.0% |
| Jordan Walker | 57.0% | 21.9% | 25.5% | 8.7% |
| Jimmy Crooks | 56.7% | 22.2% | 25.3% | 7.0% |
| Lars Nootbaar | 56.3% | 21.2% | 24.7% | 9.2% |
What the prediction markets say
Over on Polymarket, the market has drifted toward the Cardinals as game day has approached. St. Louis is trading around 55% on the moneyline to Arizona’s 46%, a move that’s tracked steadily upward over the past several days. The spread and totals markets tell a similar story: the Diamondbacks are priced at +1.5 (62¢) with the Cardinals at -1.5 (39¢), and the over 8.5 is the favored side of the totals market. Comparing across platforms, the picture is consistent — Kalshi and Novig price the moneyline in the same neighborhood, with the Cardinals as modest home favorites and the run line and total both landing right around where the books have them. A couple of the smaller in-game markets are live too, including a near coin-flip on whether there’s a run in the first inning (Yes 53¢) and a longer-shot extra-innings market (Yes 20¢).
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The bottom line
Everything points to a tight one at Busch Stadium. The models, the sportsbooks and the prediction markets all land in the same place: the Cardinals are slight home favorites behind the better starting pitcher, but with both teams hovering around .500 over their last 10, it’s the kind of matchup that could go either way. First pitch is 7:45 PM ET on Thursday.
Odds and projections referenced in this article were accurate as of the evening of Wednesday, June 25, 2026, and are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.
