Tennessee football is gearing up for year six under Josh Heupel with varying expectations. While the Vols are looking to get back in the College Football Playoffs, a new quarterback and defensive coordinator have left experts questioning exactly how good UT will be in 2026.
Ahead of fall camp, ESPN’s Bill Connelly sought to answer that question for each SEC team with his SP+ analytics-based model. In his 2026 projections, he has the Vols at No. 16 in the country and No. 8 in the SEC. This leaves Tennessee behind No. 4 Georgia, No. 6 Texas, No. 9 Texas A&M, No. 10 LSU, No. 11 Alabama, No. 12 Oklahoma and No. 15 Ole Miss.
It also places the Vols in the top half of the SEC. This means Tennessee is slotted ahead of No. 19 Missouri, No. 20 Florida, No. 25 South Carolina, No. 26 Auburn, No. 31 Vanderbilt, No. 46 Arkansas, No. 52 Mississippi State and No. 54 Kentucky.
When taking a closer look at UT, you can see it’s the offense that has propelled it to its spot. The model ranks Tennessee as the fourth-best team in the country on that side of the ball after Heupel rejuvenated the attack this past season. Defensively, the Vols clock in down at No. 49. Special teams is in the middle, sitting at No. 34.
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“There are two ways to look at the offense,” Connelly wrote. “On one hand, leading rusher DeSean Bishop, 800-yard receivers Braylon Staley and Mike Matthews, and five of six primary linemen return from an attack that ranked seventh in offensive SP+ last season. That’s undeniably good. But after a 3,500-yard passing season from Joey Aguilar, the reins will now be passed to either redshirt freshman George MacIntyre or top-15 freshman Faizon Brandon.
“Both have massive potential — and they’ve combined for nine career passes. How long will they need to get up to speed? That’s a critical question because Texas visits in Week 4, and the Vols have eight projected relative toss-ups (games within about 7.5 points). A rebound year will require better defense and strong QB play in close games.”
The model also projects a win total for Tennessee. The Vols are placed at an average of 7.7 wins on the regular season with the 20th toughest schedule in the nation. The average amount of conference wins is at exactly five.
To reach six or more wins and be bowl eligible, the model has Tennessee at a 92.4% chance. To rattle off 11 wins, which would likely mean a spot in the SEC Championship game, it has UT at 2.3%.
