ESPN released its Football Power Index (FPI) rankings on Thursday, giving a glimpse into how the analytics and data view the college football landscape with fall training camps on the horizon. According to ESPN, “FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.” It is based on 20,000 simulations for the season.
Tennessee ended the 2025 season at No. 19 in the FPI rankings, with a 14.3 score. The Vols have been on the rise this offseason. In ESPN’s new list for the 2026 season on Thursday, Tennessee comes in at No. 16 with a 15.1 score. It’s a ranking that lands as the eighth-highest spot from the SEC.
The rankings also provide percentage-based predictions. For instance, the FPI has Tennessee with an 80.8% chance to win at least six games, and a 3.3% chance to win the SEC. The Vols also have a 20.5% chance to make the playoffs, a 2.5% chance to make the national championship, and a 1.0% chance to win the national championship.
For context, Ohio State sits at the top of the list with a 28.7 FPI score. Texas is right behind them with a 26.9% score. West Virginia is the lowest-ranked team on the list with a positive FPI score, landing at No. 66 with a 0.2 rating. No SEC team has a negative FPI score, with Mississippi State being the lowest-ranked at No. 49 with a 4.1 score.
Here’s a look at Tennessee’s full schedule with opponents’ FPI ranking and score:
| Team | FPI Rank | FPI Score |
| vs Furman | N/A | N/A |
| at Georgia Tech | No. 48 | 4.2 |
| vs Kennesaw State | No. 106 | -9.0 |
| vs Texas | No. 2 | 26.9 |
| vs Auburn | No. 22 | 12.0 |
| at Arkansas | No. 47 | 4.4 |
| vs Alabama | No. 8 | 20.1 |
| at South Carolina | No. 23 | 11.7 |
| vs Kentucky | No. 40 | 5.4 |
| at Texas A&M | No. 11 | 20.0 |
| vs LSU | No. 9 | 20.0 |
| at Vanderbilt | No. 29 | 9.0 |
With all of this in mind, ESPN’s FPI projects Tennessee with a 7.3-4.7 win total next season.
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Tennessee enters fall training camp next month with two big questions that have surrounded the team throughout the season. On the offensive side of the ball, it’s about the quarterback. The Vols have two highly touted prospects, George MacIntyre and Faizon Brandon, battling for the starting position, but both are just freshmen with little to no on-field collegiate experience. Fortunately for them, though, Tennessee returns a skilled wide receiver room, a strong offensive line, and a thousand-yard rusher with DeSean Bishop.
On the defensive side of the ball, Tennessee made a ton of changes after last season’s defensive woes. The Vols refreshed the defensive coaching staff by adding Jim Knowles, Anthony Poindexter, and others, while also adding different personnel talent from the transfer portal. It was a lot of changes for just one offseason, but Tennessee was in dire need of them after how the unit performed last year.
Stay tuned to Rocky Top Insider for more Tennessee Football coverage leading into fall training camp next month.
