Tennessee football returns to Neyland Stadium for the first time in weeks Saturday night when they host Oklahoma in what’s effectively a College Football Playoff elimination game. The Vols played perhaps their best game of the season a week ago against Kentucky while Oklahoma has lost two of their last three.
Each week, the RTI team will provide game predictions for Tennessee’s matchup. We move on to the Oklahoma Sooners.
More From RTI: Three Numbers to Know When Tennessee Football Plays Oklahoma
Ric Butler
It’s November football (when the game is played, that is), meaning that it’s officially do-or-die time for a lot of teams around the college football landscape. With two losses heading into the Thanksgiving month, Tennessee has to win out for a shot at the College Football Playoffs for a second straight year. Win out and the Vols have an 84% chance of making the dance. Lose one of their final four, and that drops to a sub-10% chance. And it all starts with Oklahoma on Saturday.
I wanted to see Tennessee come out with some swagger and some attitude against Kentucky after lacking those two traits against Alabama. From my perspective, I saw that. That’s got to continue into the game this weekend. Fortunately for Tennessee, it’s a Dark Mode game – at night – in Neyland Stadium. What better way to close the Halloween weekend?
From the OU side of things, I’m most curious about John Mateer’s performance. He’s struggled since returning from his hand surgery. To me, this could go one of two ways. Either Mateer’s struggles continue and make for a more even playing field against Tennessee’s susceptible defense, or he’s due for a get-right game against a pass defense unit that gave up 330 yards to Cutter Boley last week. I genuinely have a hard time deciding which. If Tennessee’s defense can put a cap on OU’s run game, though, perhaps that sets up more help on the back end. But at the end of the day, it’s about tackling. There’s no better way to make a struggling quarterback’s numbers look better than they are than to turn 7-yard plays into 17-yard plays.
I’m placing my metaphorical bet on Joey Aguilar and the Vols’ passing game to win this game for Tennessee. It’s looked terrific for the vast majority of the season, and I think the big-play element helps Tennessee push this game out of reach for Oklahoma’s offense. Tennessee’s offense might have to make up for some mistakes from the Vols’ defense throughout the game, but I think it can do that – as we’ve seen before.
Maybe this is a Beetlejuice situation. Say “Tennessee’s Defense” three times and it’ll actually show up… Tennessee’s Defense, Tennessee’s Defense, Tennessee’s Defense.
Prediction: Tennessee 35, Oklahoma 30
Ryan Schumpert
Tennessee’s back is against the wall and must win out to make the playoffs for a second straight season. The Oklahoma game marks the first of three challenging games the Vols must get through with a road trip to Florida and a home game against Vanderbilt still on the docket.
Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer was the star of the first month of the college football season. Even while he played very well, Oklahoma’s offense was not great. Ever since Mateer returned from the hand injury he suffered against Auburn, he simply has not been the same guy and Oklahoma’s offense has been especially inefficient. The Sooners have been unable to run the ball all season. Tennessee’s run defense has shown improvement the last two games. The Sooners also have a vulnerable offensive line. After one sack the last two games, the Vols’ defensive line could bounce back in a big way in this game. If Tennessee can take the big play away from Oklahoma’s offense then they could have won of their better games this season.
The Sooners boast one of the SEC’s best defenses. But they’ve largely faced bad offenses this season. The opponents when Oklahoma’s defense earned the reputation as one of the nation’s best? Michigan, Auburn, Texas and South Carolina. Not exactly juggernauts. Ole Miss proved they are vulnerable a week ago, scoring 34 points in Norman.
Tennessee plays one of its best games of the season and cruises to a drama free win over the Sooners in its annual dark mode game.
Prediction: Tennessee 38, Oklahoma 24
Ryan Sylvia
Winner keeps its playoff hopes alive and loser will be destined for an increasingly meaningless bowl game. While the expansion of the College Football Playoffs has its negatives, the drama of this matchup inside Neyland Stadium is certainly a positive for fans.
With the season on the line, I like Joey Aguilar and company to have success. Oklahoma has statistically one of the best defenses in the country, and it’s a strong group, but I think the numbers can be a bit misleading. Against better competition, the Sooners have begun to come down to earth. As long as UT gets the run game established against OU’s strong defensive tackles, there should be plenty open to put up points throughout the game.
On the other side, there’s still plenty of anxiety about what the Vols’ defense will do on a nightly basis. The disruptive nature of creating turnovers has been the difference in some games, but there have been plenty of times where Tennessee can’t get off the field, allowing teams to convert on third down, failing to stop the run and giving up explosives through the air.
However, with John Mateer’s recent struggles, it has to give you some hope that UT can bend but not break a couple of times. I think that’ll be the difference as the Vols pull out an important win in front of one of the best atmospheres in college football.
Prediction: Tennessee 35, Oklahoma 27
