With the Vols’ second and final bye week in the rear view mirror, the Tennessee Volunteers officially have three games left on the regular season schedule before the postseason bowl slate comes up.
It’s no secret by now that Tennessee’s playoff chances have essentially been flattened to nothing. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Vols have a mere 1.9% chance to make the 12-team tournament. That being said, though, there’s a big difference between finishing the season at 9-3 and finishing at 7-5, highlighting just how much there is still left on the table – especially considering that two of those final three games are against fierce rivals.
Tennessee’s return to the field from the open date comes this weekend with a non-conference game against New Mexico State on Saturday afternoon in Neyland Stadium. The Aggies are 3-6 on the season with four straight losses. It should prove to be a nice tune-up game before a pair of critical SEC games to finish the season.
ESPN Analytics gives Tennessee a 99% chance to win the game, and the Vols are currently sitting as a point favorite.
Following the New Mexico State game, Tennessee will head south for its final true road game of the season. The Vols will take on the Florida Gators and interim head coach Billy Gonzales in Gainesville on Nov. 22. The Gators are 3-6 on the year and 0-2 since the firing of Billy Napier, with losses coming against Georgia and at Kentucky.
Winning in The Swamp has proved to be a difficult task for Tennessee this century, but ESPN Analytics does give Tennessee the edge to win at 66% at the time of this publication.
More From RTI: The Athletic has a Tennessee Football Star as a Top 10 NFL Draft Prospect
And, finally, comes the season finale and a ranked rivalry game in the Volunteer State. Vanderbilt will head into Knoxville on Nov. 29 to close down the season. This game is interesting for a multitude of reasons. For a good stretch before the Vols’ loss to Oklahoma, there was a thought that Tennessee and Vanderbilt’s game might determine who makes the College Football Playoffs between the two. That’s not the case anymore with Tennessee’s third loss. But instead of Vanderbilt trying to crush Tennessee’s playoff hopes, it could wind up being the other way around for a change. If the Commodores are still a two-loss team by that game, Tennessee could have a chance to knock the currently 16th-ranked ‘Dores out of the picture.
Despite Vanderbilt’s potent offense, ESPN Analytics gives Tennessee a 58.8% chance to win that game at home in the regular season finale.
So, what do all the numbers mean?
After calculating all the numbers together, the analytics show that Tennessee has a 38.4% chance to go 9-3, a 47.1% chance to go 8-4, and a 14.3% chance to go 7-5.
Now, obviously, the numbers can’t be the end-all-be-all. The games still have to be played on the field, and we all know that rivalry games, in particular, have a way of getting crazy from time to time. But that’s what the stats show just a few days out from the Vols’ Week 12 game against the Aggies.
What do you think Tennessee’s final regular-season record ends up at with remaining games against New Mexico State, Florida, and Vanderbilt? Do the Vols run the table completely? Win just their home games? Drop both rivalry games?
Sound off in the comments below.
