Tennessee football opened as 7.5-point favorites against Illinois in the Music City Bowl when the matchup was announced just under two weeks ago. But the line is moving significantly in Illinois’ direction since.
The Vols are now just 2.5-point favorites against Illinois according to the DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 61.5.
It’s unclear why the line has moved so dramatically in Illinois’ favor over the last 12 days. Tennessee has dealt with a couple opt outs in the game as star receiver Chris Brazzell and starting linebacker Arion Carter each won’t play in the game after declaring for the NFL Draft.
However, those two opt outs alone would not move the spread five points. There’s likely also a good deal of money coming in on the Fighting Illini, moving the spread in their direction ahead of kickoff.
Tennessee football is 5-7 against the spread this season and covered in the spread in just one of its final four games in the regular season. The over hit in eight Tennessee games this regular season while the under hit just four times.
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Illinois is 7-4-1 against the spread this season but is just 1-3 against the spread as underdogs. The over has hit in five Fighting Illini games this season while the under has hit seven times.
Tennessee football went 8-4 (4-4 SEC) in the regular season. The Vols took care of business against struggling SEC teams including Florida and Arkansas, but failed to get any quality wins. Tennessee lost to all four teams they faced that finished the season ranked.
The Fighting Illini entered the season with high expectations after going 10-3 with a bowl win over South Carolina a season ago. They disappointed a bit this year, posting an 8-4 (5-4 Big 10) record. Illinois lost by 53 points against Indiana and also lost to Ohio State, Washington and Wisconsin. Its best win came against USC back in late September.
It’s the first ever matchup between Tennessee and Illinois on the gridiron. The two have faced off in basketball each of the last three season with the Vols winning the first two matchups and Illinois knocking off Tennessee earlier this month in Nashville.
Kickoff between Tennessee and Illinois is at 5 p.m. ET on Dec. 30. Kickoff from Nissan Stadium is at 5 p.m. ET. Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers and Cole Cubelic are on the call for ESPN.
