The three Tennessee golfers in the field at the 126th US Open all sit in the same spot after Day 1—and prediction markets aren’t giving any of them strong odds to stick around for the weekend.
As we covered after the opening round, current Vols Jackson Herrington and Chase Kyes and former Tennessee standout Caleb Surratt each shot a 5-over-par 75 at Shinnecock Hills, leaving the trio tied for 113th in the 156-player field. The top 60 and ties make the cut, and that line is currently sitting at 2-over — meaning all three have ground to make up. Worth noting: the opening round isn’t actually finished. Fog delayed play by two hours Thursday morning, and not every golfer completed Round 1 before darkness, so the leaderboard and cut line will still shift as the rest of the field wraps up.
Here’s how the prediction market Polymarket is pricing each player’s chances after Thursday’s opening day.
Tennessee golfers’ “Make the Cut” odds after Day 1
Polymarket has a market on whether each player makes the cut, with prices that translate directly to an implied probability — a 15¢ “Yes” share is roughly a 15% chance. As of Friday, all three Vols are bunched together in the low teens, with Surratt leading the group.
| Player | “Yes” price | Implied chance to make cut |
|---|---|---|
| Caleb Surratt | 19¢ | ~19% |
| Chase Kyes | 16¢ | ~16% |
| Jackson Herrington | 14¢ | ~14% |
None of those are encouraging numbers, but they’re not lost causes either. There’s reason for cautious optimism: all three teed off in the morning wave Thursday, when Shinnecock Hills played notably tougher than it did in the afternoon. A friendlier draw or softer conditions in Round 2 could be enough to drag them back toward the cut line. Surratt tees off at 12:30 p.m. ET Friday, with Herrington at 12:41 p.m. ET and Kyes at 12:52 p.m. ET.
US Open winner odds after Day 1
At the top of the leaderboard, the picture is far clearer. Wyndham Clark surged into the outright favorite on Polymarket’s tournament-winner market after a strong opening day, well ahead of the chasing pack. (As with the cut markets, these prices will keep moving as the remainder of the field finishes Round 1.)
| Player | Implied chance to win |
|---|---|
| Wyndham Clark | 22% |
| Jon Rahm | 12% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 11% |
| Rory McIlroy | 11% |
| Scottie Scheffler | 6% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 5% |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 5% |
| Dustin Johnson | 3% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 3% |
| Russell Henley | 3% |
US Open Top 20 odds after Day 1
Polymarket also offers a market on which players will finish inside the top 20. Clark again leads the field, with a deep group of contenders given strong chances to finish near the top.
| Player | Implied chance to finish Top 20 |
|---|---|
| Wyndham Clark | 86% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 76% |
| Jon Rahm | 73% |
| Rory McIlroy | 70% |
| Scottie Scheffler | 60% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 58% |
| Russell Henley | 54% |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 50% |
| Dustin Johnson | 50% |
| Xander Schauffele | 50% |
| Sam Burns | 46% |
| Gary Woodland | 46% |
| Sam Stevens | 42% |
| Max McGreevy | 41% |
| Brian Harman | 37% |
| Cameron Young | 37% |
| Keegan Bradley | 36% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 35% |
| Corey Conners | 33% |
| Justin Thomas | 23% |
These markets will keep moving as the rest of the field completes the opening round and Round 2 gets underway, so the numbers above represent a snapshot rather than a final word. If you want to follow along — or take a position on the Vols clawing back to the cut line — new Polymarket users can sign up with our referral code ROCKY and claim a $50 trading bonus after depositing $20.
For now, Surratt, Kyes and Herrington will be looking to flip those make-the-cut odds in their favor when they tee off Friday afternoon.
Odds referenced in this article were accurate as of the afternoon of Friday, June 19, 2026, and are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.
