Army vs. Navy Betting Odds And Prediction: Why the Historically Low Under is in Play

Before the college football bowl season can begin, the final game of the regular season has to take place — the annual Army-Navy game. This year will mark the 123rd time the football teams from the two service academies have played. The point spread is minimal (Navy -1.5) despite Army having a better overall record.

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But if history is any indication, don’t read too much into the Army vs. Navy betting odds. Their win-loss records will not help, either. When it comes to this rivalry, it is all about which team executes on game day.

Army vs. Navy Betting Odds

Here are the odds available at the top online sportsbooks as of Dec. 7.

Navy leads the overall series, 62-53-7. The Midshipmen won last year’s game, 17-13, and two of the last three. It wasn’t too long ago that Navy dominated the rivalry, winning 14 in a row over the Black Knights (2002-15). Army enjoyed a brief winning streak from 2016-18 and has won five times since 2000.

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Army-Navy is Old School Football At Its Best

If you listen to your grandpa talk about the good ole days of football, he’s referring to a time when the run game dominated college football. Games were more physical than they often are now and not high scoring, which describes the style of play for both Army (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) and Navy (4-7 SU, 7-4 ATS).

Fans and bettors can count on the Black Knights and Midshipmen to run the ball early and often while working in maybe a pass or two (or three) along the way. Consequently, both are usually among the top-10 rushing teams in the country, and this year is no different. Army has the No. 2 rushing attack in the country while the Midshipmen are ranked No. 7.

Neither team tends to throw the ball often. Army has recorded 40 completions in 11 games this season for 892 yards and only has one receiver with double-digit receptions (Isaiah Alston, 16 for 269 yards). Navy has done only a shade better, completing 53 passes for 1,005 yards.

Consequently, the game tends to move quickly, leaving both teams with no room for error, and every offensive possession is critical. That could be especially true for Army since the Black Knights’ defense has struggled to slow down the run all season (193.5 yards per game allowed; No. 115 in the country).

The Midshipmen, on the other hand, have the No. 4 run defense in the country (85.6 ypg allowed)

If Army can’t slow down the Navy run game or get its own run game going against the Navy defense, the Midshipmen will control the clock, and the Black Knights’ run game will not see the field often enough to matter.

Betting Analysis: Bet This Historically Low Under

Like most games in this rivalry, whoever runs the ball better will probably win. Army may have the more productive run game, but Navy has been stingy against the run this season. It will not be easy for the Black Knights to establish a run game, but they have been too good at running the ball all season to be stopped now.

Does that mean Navy will win? Not necessarily. This could be one of those games in which the team that has the ball lasts wins. It all depends on who establishes the run while also slowing down the other team’s rushing attack.

It is hard to say with confidence who will win this game, but it is easy to say one thing — it will be a low-scoring contest. Why? Because it always is.

The total for this game (32.5 to 33 pts depending on the sportsbook) is not the lowest college football has ever seen (that honor belongs to this season’s Iowa-Minnesota game; 31.5 pts). But it is the lowest total in the series dating back to 1995. Four of the last five Army-Navy games went under 32.5 points. The last 16 games have gone under the total.

With how much both teams rely on the run game, points are often at a premium in this game.

Our Pick: Under 33 points