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Pick 6: SEC Against the Spread – Week 1

Photo via The Big Lead
Photo via The Big Lead

 Mississippi State (-21) at Southern Mississippi, Saturday, 10 pm ET, Fox Sports 1

Kevin: Big spreads are stressful for a gambler, even when you’re pretty sure they’re going to hit. The spread is down to MSU-21 (from -23.5) as i’m writing this and I think i’ll bank on the Golden Eagles to show some instate pride and keep it under 21. Southern Miss was 4-2 against the spread last year, and has a new influx of talent from transfers that may be enough to make a difference. I wouldn’t bet the farm on this game, but with Mississippi State having to replace seven starters on offense I imagine it has a decent chance to sputter early. It’s tempting enough for me to roll the dice and take Southern Mississippi +21.

John: I’m going with another gaming theory I’ve employed in the past and KH alluded to it in his second sentence. The spread has gone down. Meaning the book is trying to entice the masses to get on Mississippi State. The masses are asses theory relies upon one simple fact. They didn’t build pyramids in the desert because people win at gambling. Quite the opposite. And if the book is trying to even out its play a bit, it means that the masses have jumped on Southern Miss. So I’m gonna GTOW (go the other way), though, admittedly, I think that KH makes strong points. But how many times have you hung your head in disbelief after a game you knew would hit didn’t? GTOW with me, y’all. Lay the points and take Mississippi State.

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