Running back Saquon Barkley has an MVP-caliber impact with the Philadelphia Eagles this season, leading the league in regular season and playoff rushing and scoring 20 touchdowns in 19 games.
On Thursday night, Barkley ran away with NFL Offensive Player of the Year honors, garnering 35 of the 50 first-place votes.
That’s led to heavy sports betting interest in Barkley’s player props for Super Bowl 59 (6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday on FOX). In the paragraphs below, we take a look at the odds and offer some picks, predictions and best bet recommendations for some of Barkley’s most-popular Big Game props.
All odds and prop totals are as of Thursday and subject to change.
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Super Bowl 59 Saquon Barkley props: Rushing yards Over/Under 112.5
Barkley averaged a league-most 125.3 rushing yards per game during the regular season, and that average has jumped to an eye-popping 147.3 in Philly’s three NFC playoff wins.
He’s rushed for 113 or more yards — 118-plus in each — in 11 of his 19 games, including 3-for-3 this postseason.
Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s Kansas City Chiefs defense, though, held opposing running backs to the third-fewest rushing yards (70.4) per game during the regular season. K.C. has faced four of Barkley’s top-10 running back compatriots this year, and limited Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, Chuba Hubbard and Bucky Irving to an average of only 39.8 ground yards per outing.
In the postseason, K.C. has not allowed a 100-yard rusher under Spagnuolo — a total of 18 consecutive games.
Barkley, meanwhile, faced six of the top-10 defenses vs. opposing running backs this season and averaged 96.5 rushing yards per outing, topping 112.5 yards in only one of those contests — 119 in the wild card playoff win over the Green Bay Packers.
Best bet: While Barkley has been a dominant force, Spagnuolo’s defenses almost always rise to the postseason occasion. His 2007 New York Giants defense held Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots to 14 points in a Super Bowl 42 upset win. And in Super Bowl 58 a year ago, they limited league rushing leader/OPOY Christian McCaffrey to 80 rushing yards on 22 attempts in a 25-22 K.C. overtime victory. Unless Barkley breaks loose for a 40- or 50-yard gain, look for the Chiefs to keep him UNDER his 112.5-yard total (-105 at BetMGM Sportsbook).
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Super Bowl 59 Saquon Barkley props: Rushing attempts O/U 21.5
For the season, Barkley is averaging 21.6 rushes per game and has had 22 or more carries in 11 of 19 contests, including totals of 25, 26 and 15 this postseason.
Kansas City has faced an average of 18.9 running back rushing attempts per game this season.
Best bet: Unless the Chiefs are able to jump ahead by multiple scores against Philly’s stellar defense (ranked first in yards allowed and second in points permitted), this should be a close contest where Philly leans on Barkley and the run in an attempt to control the ball and keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline. In light of my yards pick above, though, expect a below-average efficiency day for the Philly back. You’ll have to pay some extra juice, but go with the OVER on Barkley’s rush attempts (-124 at DraftKings Sportsbook).
Super Bowl 59 Saquon Barkley props: Longest rush O/U 23.5
Per Pro Football Reference, Barkley gained 24-plus yards on 14 of his 411 rushing attempts this season (3.4 percent of his carries)
He had at least one of those explosive runs in 10 of his 19 games, accounting for 766 of his 2,447 total rushing yards on the year.
Best bet: The math with his 2024-25 averages says Barkley will break loose for at least one 24-yard-plus gain if he gets 22 or more carries on Super Sunday. But here’s where I’ll have to correlate a pick to my first two selections above. Go with UNDER (+105 at BetMGM).
Super Bowl 59 Saquon Barkley props: Receiving yards O/U 12.5
While Barkley obviously set seven-year career rushing highs across the board in 2024-25, his target (43), reception (33) and receiving yards (278) totals marked regular season lows in the six campaigns in which he played at least 13 games.
And in his 19 games this season, Barkley totaled at least 13 receiving yards in only seven contests.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, surrendered an average of 24.2 receiving yards per outing to opposing running backs during the regular season — the fourth-lowest average in the league.
Best bet: It could take only one reception for Barkley to clear his prop total, but we’ll play the percentages and go with the UNDER here (+100 at BetMGM).
Super Bowl 59 Saquon Barkley props: Anytime touchdown, 2+ TDs
Barkley matched his career high with 15 touchdowns (13 rushing, 2 receiving) during the regular season and has added five more scores in three playoff games.
He’s found his way into the end zone in 10 of 19 games this season. The TDs have generally come in bunches with Barkley tallying multiple TDs in eight of those 10 contests, including two of three postseason games.
As for the K.C. defense, they’ve surrendered 12 total TDs in 19 games to enemy RBs.
Best bet: Barkley is almost certain to score at least once Sunday, but just be prepared to pay some heavy juice for an anytime TD (-190 at FanDuel Sportsbook). The return for a Barkley multiple-TD game is heavily tempered as well with the best odds (+285) to be found at DraftKings.
Super Bowl 59 Saquon Barkley props: To win game MVP
Barkley has the second-best Big Game MVP odds in New Orleans at a top sportsbook-consensus +250, trailing only the three-time MVP-winner Mahomes (+110). Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is third at +355.
Best bet: If the majority of my aforementioned Barkley prop picks come through, he won’t be the first running back since the Denver Broncos’ Terrell Davis in 1998 to win Super Bowl MVP honors. But if you like the Eagles to win, why not go ahead and tack on a Barkley MVP wager (+250 at FanDuel) as well?
