The Opponent: The University of Arkansas was originally founded as Arkansas Industrial University in 1871. The school has nearly 30,000 undergraduate students, and has been playing football since 1894. Arkansas joined the SEC in 1992 and claims four SEC West division titles. Arkansas is now coached by interim head coach Bobby Petrino. This will be Petrino’s first game back in charge of the Hogs. Petrino previously coached Arkansas from 2008 to 2011, when he was notoriously fired after the most famous motorcycle wreck in college football history. Petrino had a lot of success last time around in Fayetteville. Can he recapture that magic all these years later?
Are they any Good?: The common-sense answer is no. Typically, when you get your head coach fired after five games, it is a good sign you are a bad football team. I don’t think that is the case here, though. Arkansas has fielded a historically bad defense through September, but this is a team that took Ole Miss down to the wire in Oxford a few weeks ago. It is not a stretch to say Arkansas is two bad fumbles away from being 4-1 in spite of a bad defense. This is also a reminder of just how competitive the SEC is becoming in the NIL era. The Hogs would certainly be ranked in the bottom quarter of the league right now, but this team still has some serious offensive punch.
What will this tell us about Tennessee?: It should tell us how well Tennessee spent its bye week. The Vols have to hold serve at home in order to make the college football playoffs. Arkansas is a team that has upset Tennessee several times in the past 20 years, obviously including last season. I expect Saturday to tell us a lot more about Tennessee’s defense. Thus far, the Vols are well off the pace of their elite 2024 defense. This Arkansas offense poses a significant challenge, but you expect the Tennessee defense to play better at home. Saturday will tell us how much the Vols were able to clean up during the week.
What does Vegas say?: This line opened at Tennessee -13.5 at most books last Sunday. The consensus line now sits at Vols -12.5. The Over / Under is a robust 68.5 points. The Hogs are now 1-4 ATS on the season. The Over has hit in four of their five games. Tennessee is 3-2 ATS on the season. The Over has hit in every Volunteer game so far.
Matchup to watch on Offense: Press the tempo. I would expect to see Tennessee really push the tempo in this game. Interim head coach Bobby Petrino gutted the Arkansas defensive staff just over a week ago. The move was probably warranted, but how much of a difference will it make? Interim defensive coordinator Chris Wilson last served as the DC for the Houston Roughnecks in the UFL last spring, but he has plenty of collegiate coaching experience. Obviously, Wilson & Petrino can’t change Arkansas’ personnel in two weeks, so how much difference do we see in the scheme? The best way Tennessee can test Arkansas’ revamped defense is with tempo. With a new coaching staff, can the Hogs communicate fast enough on defense when the Vols push the tempo? That will be a real challenge. In its last two games against Memphis and Notre Dame, this Arkansas defense gave up 500 yards rushing. Tennessee’s running backs attempted just 24 carries in Starkville. Expect that total to be 30+ on Saturday. Arkansas gave the Vols some trouble with odd-man defensive fronts in Fayetteville last season, but both Dylan Sampson and Desean Bishop averaged over 6 yards per carry in that game. In hindsight, Tennessee should have leaned on its ground game more in that game. I expect that will be corrected tomorrow, and the Vols’ tempo will make it hard for Arkansas to stop the run without bringing safeties into the box. At that point, Tennessee should be able to exploit an equally bad Arkansas secondary. It all starts with tempo, though. The Vols can’t allow a battered defense to catch its breath.
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Matchup to watch on Defense: Control the edge. Tennessee‘s main concern on Saturday has to be Taylen Green. Green is a physical force and is averaging over 8 yards per carry on the season for Arkansas. He is easily the Hogs’ leading rusher. While Green is a very capable passer, it should be his legs that scare Tennessee on Saturday. The Vols actually did a superb job in Fayetteville last year keeping Green in the pocket. When taking sacks into account, the Arkansas quarterback finished with negative rushing yardage. However, this year’s Tennessee defense has not looked the same against the run. The Vols have been very stout against interior rushing, but have looked relatively soft on the edges. Georgia was able to take advantage of that in some big moments, like overtime. Fluff Bothwell really abused the Tennessee defense out on the perimeter in Starkville. Rodney Garner‘s unit is getting healthier, and Garner will have plenty of bodies to throw at Arkansas on Saturday. While Tennessee’s ends lead the SEC in sacks, they need to improve in setting the edge in the run game. Outside of being a dangerous runner, Taylen Green does some of his best passing when the play breaks down. Charlotte transfer O’Mega Blake (what a name!) already has 30 catches on the year. He is a target to keep an eye on. I would also expect Bobby Petrino to pick on Ty Redmond with the continued steady play of Colton Hood. This is a very formidable Hog offense, but it is much easier to contain if you can set the edge against Taylen Green.
Fun Fact: When it comes to football coaches, Bobby Petrino is the cat with nine lives. It is hard to say how much longer he will be around in the SEC, so it is worth taking a moment to stop and revisit his circuitous path over the last 20 years. We can probably start at Auburn where he was a fantastic coordinator for Tommy Tuberville. One season on the Plains got him the head coaching job at Louisville. After just one season with the Cardinals, he famously and secretly interviewed for the head coach coaching job at Auburn. The problem was his former boss, Tommy Tuberville, was still employed. Petrino was unsuccessful with that coup, but that didn’t stop him from having plenty of success with the Cardinals. That landed him the head coaching job of the Atlanta Falcons in January 2007. He got to Atlanta just in time to see Michael Vick‘s downfall, and bolted from the Falcons in the middle of the night with a 3-10 record to head to Arkansas. Petrino saw plenty of success with the Hogs, but it all unraveled in April 2012 as he crashed his motorcycle on Arkansas Highway 16. The crash itself wasn’t so much as the issue, as it was his passenger. Initially, Petrino said he was alone on the motorcycle, but days later he had to admit his passenger was a young Arkansas employee with whom he’d been carrying on a secret affair. In his final press conference at Arkansas, Petrino produced one of the most famous images in college football history. He stood before the media, battered and bruised, with a neck brace on, resigned to humiliation. Petrino has been spending the last 13 years trying to redeem himself from that moment. He finally has a real shot at redemption. What does he do with it?
So what happens?: Not much would surprise me in this game. It sets up as a classic and chaotic shootout. Both offenses average over 500 yards per game, and both offenses have combined for 17 turnovers. Statistically, these are two of the worst passing defenses in the SEC. The biggest variable is the Arkansas locker room. Mid-season coaching changes can very often provide a spark, see UCLA last weekend. They can also just be lipstick on a pig, or a hog in this case. The reality is Bobby Petrino seemed to have plenty of autonomy running this Arkansas offense under Sam Pittman. To his credit, the offense is not what got Pittman fired. I question how much difference coaching changes can make for this Arkansas defense though. I expect Tennessee’s tempo to really punish the Hogs. Arkansas is giving up over 8 yards per passing attempt, only Kentucky is worse in the SEC. Tennessee’s passing game is really clicking with Joey Aguilar, and this probably creates the biggest mismatch in this game. Chris Brazzell is on an absolute tear for the Vols. He has seven touchdowns on the season, and should have eight if not for a horrendous pass interference call in Starkville. I would target Brazzell as much as possible, until Arkansas can slow him down. I expect Brazzell to get 1-on-1 chances, because I think Arkansas will need to commit extra bodies to stopping the Volunteer ground game. Tennessee will rush for 200+ yards in this game, including a couple of big chunks. The challenge is laid out for Tennessee’s defense though. Hopefully some nice bulletin board material provides extra motivation for the Vols. I expect the Volunteer defense to look better at home, and better coming off their bye week. Injuries in the secondary will keep this unit from resembling last year’s defense, but they can look a lot better than they did in Starkville. Taylen Green will make some plays. He will frustrate the Vols with a few 3rd and long conversions. Ultimately, though, Tennessee’s defense will be able to create more stops than Arkansas’. That will be the difference in this game. Tennessee’s ground game starts to run away from the Hogs in the 3rd quarter.
The final score will be Tennessee 42, Arkansas 24.
