Tennessee football is looking to play spoiler as they conclude the regular season against rival Vanderbilt on Saturday afternoon at Neyland Stadium. The Commodores enter the matchup 9-2 and could make the College Football Playoffs with their first win at Neyland Stadium since 2017.
Ahead of each Tennessee game, we’ll talk to someone who covers the Vols’ opponent that week. This week, Vandy on SI’s Joey Dwyer discussed Diego Pavia’s big season, keys to the game and much more.
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Is this the biggest game in Vanderbilt football history?
“I don’t think there’s any question about it. The best win in program history is last season’s win over No. 1 Alabama, but this would be the second biggest, it would put them in the mix for the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history and would give them their first 10-win regular season ever. Perhaps a win doesn’t guarantee a playoff berth, but it doesn’t get much bigger than that around these parts.”
Both of Vanderbilt’s two losses have come on the road. Are they a clearly worse team on the road or is it just how the schedule has fallen?
“Clark Lea certainly seems to be of the belief that at times Vanderbilt didn’t come out the right way when it was at Texas and Alabama. That Texas game saw it get punched in the face early and fail to respond. Against Alabama it was uncharacteristically poor in the margins, ie the red zone.
I’m not sure it’s a matter of them being great at home and not as great on the road, though. They still answered the call at South Carolina and Virginia Tech. The big thing that Clark Lea is harping on this weekend is playing in a way that won’t allow the Neyland crowd to involve themselves in the game.”
How is Diego Pavia an improved player from last season?
“It’s hard not to start the conversation with what surrounds Pavia. Vanderbilt was intentional this offseason about upgrading its offensive line and its showed all season. Pavia has significantly more time to operate and, more importantly, is healthier because of the way they’re protecting him. They’re also much more explosive on the perimeter as a result of adding Tre Richardson. With Richardson’s addition, they’re no longer just a ball-control offense. Pavia no longer has to be Superman.
Pavia himself is significantly improved. He appears to be far more confident in throwing the deep ball and makes more ‘NFL throws’ than he did this time last season. I think his decision making has also improved. He’s also much less reliant on his legs these days and doesn’t have to leave the pocket to demonstrate his mobility.”
What are the strengths and weaknesses of Vanderbilt’s defense?
“It’s hard to know exactly what this Vanderbilt defense is despite the big sample size we have at this point. There’s days—like Saturday’s win against Kentucky—where they look dominant and there’s days—like its win against Auburn—where it can’t stop anybody. Hard to know exactly what Vanderbilt defense we will see.
This group has generally had all the staples of a Clark Lea defense. They’re sound tacklers. They swarm to the football. They often don’t let up deep shots that deflate them. At times it does feel like they’re lacking the big splash play, the big sack or the big interception. Tennessee’s receivers could have a day against Vanderbilt’s secondary if it can’t get home.
All in all, Vanderbilt’s defense has always given it a chance to win. It’s never lost solely because of its defense. That’s about as good as you can ask for in college football’s current state.”
What do you view as the main keys for Vanderbilt in this game?
“Vanderbilt just has to do anything it can do in order to give itself a bigger margin for error. Perhaps it’s a big interception. Perhaps it’s an explosive passing play that ends in a touchdown. Perhaps it’s a long third-down conversion. Something has to give here to allow Vanderbilt to make a few mistakes and still win.
Its coverage also has to hold up against Tennessee’s receivers. Vanderbilt is significantly improved there and has figured out a solid rotation, but the best wide receiver rooms in the league can look like a mismatch at times for it.
It’s also got to be a Diego Pavia day in which he looks the part of a Heisman Trophy candidate. That’s perhaps the biggest key to Saturday’s game.”
Score prediction?
I said after predicting Vanderbilt would lose to South Carolina and seeing it push the Gamecocks around in the following days that I wouldn’t ever advise betting against this group. They’ve just got too much moxie. Too much chip on the shoulder-ness.
It’ll be up-tempo and high scoring, but I think Vanderbilt gets it done.
Vanderbilt 34, Tennessee 30
