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Aaron
Why it would make sense: I love Aaron. We all do. He was the first Alexandrian we ever met. But not only that, he also proved to be competent from the get. Not soft like his cohorts.
But as much as we all love him, our emotional connection to him isn’t nearly as strong as it is with some of the others. So having him be the one would be an easy way out for the show. Yes, there’d be a big loss, but also, it’d be one we could all deal with. Comparatively speaking, at least.
Why it wouldn’t make sense: Too easy , man. With the advent of Negan, the entire world has changed. And losing Aaron wouldn’t be on par with the level of change we’re talking about.
Final take: Aaron’s good to go.
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