Why it would make sense: In Talking Dead, showrunner Scott Gimple — or maybe it was Robert Kirkman, the author of the comic book series — brought up the point that the loss of a key character will drive home the same thing that the advent of Negan drives home — that the gang’s not exactly on Herschel’s farm anymore. It’s a brand new world out there. And there’s not a single character whose death would signify that fact more than Rick’s.
Why it wouldn’t make sense: He’s Rick Grimes. Plus, Negan’s words indicate that if anyone cries, Rick’s eating Carl’s remaining eye, which insinuates it Rick will live. Plus-plus, the best way to punish Rick is to make him watch the brutal murder, thus literally witnessing the blood one could argue is on his hands for leading the group in attacking the Saviors to begin with.
Final take: Rick lives.