Why it would make sense: Daryl obviously has an ax to grind with Dwight, and Dwight obviously doesn’t like Daryl too much either. But if I’m Dwight, I’m way more put out with Eugene.
Call me a Reagan conservative, but I draw the line at dick biting.
Anyway, Daryl is a likely choice due to the bad blood. Yes, Daryl’s a badass of the highest order, and, as such, could be useful to the Saviors. But as lone-wolf-ish as he is, he’d be a hard convert, and therefore, wouldn’t be the worst choice for Negan to kill.
Why it wouldn’t make sense: HE’S DARYL for crying out loud, and surely there’d be a fan revolt. Arguably a bigger one than if Rick were the one killed.
Then there’s this: I sense that Carol will eventually integrate back into Alexandria (or wherever they are next year) and Daryl needs to be there to play a role in all that. I hate to say it, but Carol is the Michonne to Daryl’s Rick.
Final take: Daryl’s a sexy (albeit a dreaded) pick. But not the correct one. He and his crossbow will see season seven. (Assuming they give it back to him.)